Archive for the ‘Analysts’ Category

What's The Bigger Market Opportunity? Online TV or Online Ad Exchanges

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Did YOU Know?

Arash Amel, Screen Digest’s research director, digital media, said that the ad-supported online TV market (including Hulu) in the U.S. was worth $448 million last year and estimated that revenues will reach $1.45 billion by 2013.

ThinkEquity analysts Robert Coolbrith and Bill Morrison estimate that revenues in non-premium, non-reserved display advertising will go from $4.8 billion in 2009 to $11.4 billion in 2013. (see below)

ThinkEquity

Given all the hype and link love around online TV, this comparison is likely eye-opening for some.

More from the Screen Digest report on online TV:

“Based on the current online ad strategies implemented, [online TV ad revenues] will account for 2.2 percent of all US TV advertising revenue by 2013, but definitely won’t be generating enough to offset the $2bn we expect total US TV advertising to have declined by during in that period.”

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Yield Optimizers Poised To Migrate To Exchange Model Says ThinkEquity’s Morrison and Coolbrith

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

ThinkEquity Partners LogoBill Morrison and Robert Coolbrith are equity analysts at ThinkEquity Partners and recently authored a report entitled, “The Opportunity In Non-Premium Display Advertising.”

AdExchanger.com: Are data exchanges the key to unlocking value in social media? Who’s getting it right in the data exchange space?

BM and RB: We’ll defer the second part of your question until a later date. As investment research analysts, it’s hard for us to identify “winners” without the help of industry participants, who provide us with invaluable insight and opinions. In our recent conversations with networks and exchanges, when we asked about the most important new companies in the space, the data exchanges invariably came up. However, it still seems to be pretty early in the development of the data exchange model, and we didn’t sense any clear consensus from industry participants on who is taking the lead.

While data exchanges are certainly “hot,” it’s an open question as to whether an auction-based marketplace is the “right” paradigm for monetization of proprietary consumer insight. People have pointed out the similarities between the data exchanges and the offline list marketing/direct mail model, and we think it’s a fair comparison. In both cases, the buyer pays up front for the data and then leverages the data to market to consumers on an individual basis. But that’s complicated in the online world by the matter of actually reaching the identified consumer, which can be a bit like finding a needle in a haystack. An alternative approach might be to realize that the haystack is full of needles, but of varying types. So, allow the inventory to dictate the targeting, not the other way around.

Regardless of how the mechanics play out, we think third-party data exchanges will be important for the monetization of all display media, but will be particularly important in social media, where the inventory doesn’t typically contextualize well, the platforms are rich with demographic, behavioral, and social data, and current monetization levels make targeting a real priority. One thing we’re currently wondering about is which could be the bigger opportunity for social media: the inventory (where value should be enhanced through the use of both first- and third-party data) or the first-party data that can be directly monetized through data exchanges to enhance the value of display inventory across the Web. The data exchanges, by providing a transparent pricing mechanism for behavioral, demographic, and social data, should help answer that question.

How do you see large publishers evolving as media trading achieves scale?

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Yield Optimizers Poised To Migrate To Exchange Model Says ThinkEquity's Morrison and Coolbrith

Wednesday, May 20th, 2009

ThinkEquity Partners LogoBill Morrison and Robert Coolbrith are equity analysts at ThinkEquity Partners and recently authored a report entitled, “The Opportunity In Non-Premium Display Advertising.”

AdExchanger.com: Are data exchanges the key to unlocking value in social media? Who’s getting it right in the data exchange space?

BM and RB: We’ll defer the second part of your question until a later date. As investment research analysts, it’s hard for us to identify “winners” without the help of industry participants, who provide us with invaluable insight and opinions. In our recent conversations with networks and exchanges, when we asked about the most important new companies in the space, the data exchanges invariably came up. However, it still seems to be pretty early in the development of the data exchange model, and we didn’t sense any clear consensus from industry participants on who is taking the lead.

While data exchanges are certainly “hot,” it’s an open question as to whether an auction-based marketplace is the “right” paradigm for monetization of proprietary consumer insight. People have pointed out the similarities between the data exchanges and the offline list marketing/direct mail model, and we think it’s a fair comparison. In both cases, the buyer pays up front for the data and then leverages the data to market to consumers on an individual basis. But that’s complicated in the online world by the matter of actually reaching the identified consumer, which can be a bit like finding a needle in a haystack. An alternative approach might be to realize that the haystack is full of needles, but of varying types. So, allow the inventory to dictate the targeting, not the other way around.

Regardless of how the mechanics play out, we think third-party data exchanges will be important for the monetization of all display media, but will be particularly important in social media, where the inventory doesn’t typically contextualize well, the platforms are rich with demographic, behavioral, and social data, and current monetization levels make targeting a real priority. One thing we’re currently wondering about is which could be the bigger opportunity for social media: the inventory (where value should be enhanced through the use of both first- and third-party data) or the first-party data that can be directly monetized through data exchanges to enhance the value of display inventory across the Web. The data exchanges, by providing a transparent pricing mechanism for behavioral, demographic, and social data, should help answer that question.

How do you see large publishers evolving as media trading achieves scale?

(more…)

ThinkEquity Releases In-Depth Analysis on Online Display Advertising

Monday, May 4th, 2009

thinkequity-logoAmong “Street” analysts, the team of Bill Morrison and Robert Coolbrith at ThinkEquity are alone in their thoughtful understanding of the opportunity in online display advertising – and it’s not just due to the recent bloodletting on Wall Street.

Today’s release of their thorough industry report entitled, “The Opportunity In Non-Premium Display Advertising,” is no surprise.

While certain market segments have underperformed our initial expectations, we believe that non-premium display is likely to remain the highest-growth segment of online media over the next five years, with the greatest potential to create significant opportunities and market dislocations.

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Wrath of Khan: I’m Back! And Advertising Isn’t!

Tuesday, January 6th, 2009
Advertising in 2009

JP Morgan analyst, Imran Khan, has released his latest report, “Nothing But Net: Outlook for Global Internet Stocks in 2009″ and to no one’s surprise, the outlook for online advertising is restrained.

Khan expects only a 6.3% increase in online display ad spending to $8.4 billion for 2009.  This is a decrease of a billion since his  prediction of $9.4 billion in September.  But, it’s still an increase in an awful economy.

Following the pack, according to Mike Shields’ Mediaweek article, Khan says, “In 2009, we believe the display advertising market will be very tough and face declining CPMs and search will still likely be a winner.”

AdExchanger.com also predicts that outdoor temperatures will likely rise as summer approaches.

Khan stated on his conference call with reporters (Imran’s got juice) that advertisers have “failed to understand the consumer demand.”

The economy plummeted a lot faster than analysts and advertisers would have ever expected and consumer demand went with it. Advertisers also had a budget allocated for a much more robust economy in calendar 2008. If they pushed that budget through, yes, they likely got pounded.

We’re contrarians here. It’s time for another prediction. (And to be fair, Imran says it’s gonna get better in the second half of 2009.)  Online display advertising in Q4 of 2009 will be strong – especially when compared to the still waters of 2008.

According to TechCrunch, Imran wasn’t the only one giving out predictions. Doug Anmuth of Barclay’s (was Lehman) said that he expects ad network consolidation in the coming year.

Only the strong will survive. But, remember – 2009 is the year of the ad exchanges. Huzzah!

Wrath of Khan: I'm Back! And Advertising Isn't!

Tuesday, January 6th, 2009
Advertising in 2009

JP Morgan analyst, Imran Khan, has released his latest report, “Nothing But Net: Outlook for Global Internet Stocks in 2009″ and to no one’s surprise, the outlook for online advertising is restrained.

Khan expects only a 6.3% increase in online display ad spending to $8.4 billion for 2009.  This is a decrease of a billion since his  prediction of $9.4 billion in September.  But, it’s still an increase in an awful economy.

Following the pack, according to Mike Shields’ Mediaweek article, Khan says, “In 2009, we believe the display advertising market will be very tough and face declining CPMs and search will still likely be a winner.”

AdExchanger.com also predicts that outdoor temperatures will likely rise as summer approaches.

Khan stated on his conference call with reporters (Imran’s got juice) that advertisers have “failed to understand the consumer demand.”

The economy plummeted a lot faster than analysts and advertisers would have ever expected and consumer demand went with it. Advertisers also had a budget allocated for a much more robust economy in calendar 2008. If they pushed that budget through, yes, they likely got pounded.

We’re contrarians here. It’s time for another prediction. (And to be fair, Imran says it’s gonna get better in the second half of 2009.)  Online display advertising in Q4 of 2009 will be strong – especially when compared to the still waters of 2008.

According to TechCrunch, Imran wasn’t the only one giving out predictions. Doug Anmuth of Barclay’s (was Lehman) said that he expects ad network consolidation in the coming year.

Only the strong will survive. But, remember – 2009 is the year of the ad exchanges. Huzzah!

ThinkPanmure: Now Entering Phase II of Media Recession

Monday, September 15th, 2008

ThinkPanmure, William MorrisonBill Morrison, Senior Analyst at ThinkPanmure and one of the few Wall Street analysts with an understanding of ad exchanges, stated in his industry report released today that advertising is entering Phase II of a media recession. Morrison explains his thinking:

“First, marketers reduce spot market activity and eliminate quarterly budget flushes. Then, marketers begin canceling “up-front” commitments and previously signed advertising contracts. Lastly, marketers begin to rationalize/reduce budgets for future years. Our research suggests that we entered phase two of the current media recession during 3Q. Our recent conversations with online publishers revealed a significant number of advertisers that have cancelled contracts or significantly reduced commitments for the second half of 2008. The majority of industry contacts we spoke with this quarter said fundamentals weakened from 2Q to 3Q.”

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Wrath of Khan and The Holy Grail of Display Advertising

Thursday, September 4th, 2008

The sky is falling in the world of online display advertising!

Actually, Paid Content makes it sound like JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan awoke from a nap:

“Sensing that marketers are becoming more conservative with their ad spend, Khan expects that long-tail advertisers will shift toward performance-based advertising forms.” Yawn.

Looks like it’s only going to be 14% year-over-year growth instead of 20% according to Imran – and only $8.2 billion in online display advertising business instead of $8.6 billion

Imran believes that marketers are looking at the purchase funnel and saying, “Where can I drive bottom line revs with my ad spend and prove to my boss that I am a brilliant online advertising strategist so that he will sign off on my expenses which include those delicious steak lunches?” The easy answer is search, no doubt.

This slump should not happen.

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